Analytics
Resolved No on 17 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 69%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 59.5% on 6 May 2026 and the low 31% on 17 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 31% on 17 May 2026. $257.21 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 3:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 26 Apr 2026 – 17 May 2026, chart shows 20%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | 50.5% |
| 17 May 2026 | 31.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| VTRX | Yes | 5.93 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
| Dantaswell | Yes | 2.5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-arn-mel4-2026-05-16
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