Analytics
Resolved Yes on 17 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 54%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 26 Apr 2026 to 17 May 2026, the highest close was 67.5% on 6 May 2026 and the lowest 44% on 10 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 66% on 5 May 2026. $4.03K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 5:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 26 Apr 2026 – 17 May 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | 50.5% |
| 17 May 2026 | 54.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BOTTTTTT2204546446546541651 | No | 480 |
| SpamMisubi | No | 222.48 |
| CrovaxGargos | No | 93.02 |
| Johnygyns | No | 58.54 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-arn-mel4-2026-05-16
| Shocked-Similarity | No | 49.5 |
| Severe-Welcome | No | 38.61 |
| dariola | No | 36.58 |
| GuesseWho | No | 20 |
| JohnnyMarkets | No | 13.29 |
| ripple5507 | No | 11.23 |
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