Analytics
Resolved No on 17 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 86%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 26 Apr 2026 to 17 May 2026, the highest close was 52.5% on 6 May 2026 and the lowest 14% on 17 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 14% on 17 May 2026. $431.54 traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 5:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 26 Apr 2026 – 17 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | 50.5% |
| 17 May 2026 | 14.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| Youthful-Fanlight | Yes | 40 |
| Jean123 | Yes | 30 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arnold Allen defeats Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-arn-mel4-2026-05-16
| Bold Falcon 6DD6 | Yes | 4 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
