Analytics
Resolved Ardelean on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Ardelean at 23.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 25 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 79% on 27 Oct 2025 and the low 50% on 25 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 69.5% on 26 Oct 2025. $349.64K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 30, 7:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 25 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 76.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jolanda | Conejo Ruiz | 15K |
| 6yuyurrg | Conejo Ruiz | 10K |
| HypeManAlex | Conejo Ruiz | 388.96 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Conejo Ruiz | 231 |
| ufcmaster | Conejo Ruiz | 200 |
| Extraneous-Venom | Conejo Ruiz | 177.05 |
| anon333 | Conejo Ruiz | 135.12 |
| GooberThaGooner | Conejo Ruiz | 120.84 |
| tombi | Conejo Ruiz | 100 |
| GR1000 | Conejo Ruiz | 85.71 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This is a polymarket on whether Ardelean or Conejo Ruiz will win their bout at UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama, scheduled for November 1. This market will resolve to "Ardelean" if Alice Ardelean is declared the winner. This market will resolve to "Conejo Ruiz" if Montserrat Conejo Ruiz is declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the bout is not scored, postponed after November 8, 2025, or canceled, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be ESPN. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-fight-night-garcia-vs-onama
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