Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 80.5%. Yes opened at 51% on 1 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2026 to 8 Feb 2026, the highest close was 51% on 1 Feb 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 7 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 19% on 2 Feb 2026. $679.75 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 9, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 1 Feb 2026 – 8 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | 51.0% |
| 8 Feb 2026 | 19.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 219 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 185 |
| Misty Horizon F967 | Yes | 50 |
| paas2 | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Alex Morono and Daniil Donchenko at UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira, scheduled for February 7, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ale5-dan59-2026-02-07
| Cobalt Scout A2CB | Yes | 5.63 |
| Safe-Waterskiing | Yes | 5 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 5 |
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