Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 76.5%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 11 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 11 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 49.5% on 23 Jan 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 15 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 49.5% on 23 Jan 2026. $35.67K traded over the market's life.
97 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 11 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | 48.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 23.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xA8B5DC | Yes | 2.76K |
| siick | Yes | 1K |
| yeasy | Yes | 935.44 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 749 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Diego Lopes defeats Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, scheduled for January 31, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ale14-die4-2026-01-31
| dryssyice | Yes | 544.27 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 515 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 501 |
| thxtkidb | Yes | 428.57 |
| Fastlife | Yes | 390.38 |
| Lunar Harbor A3D6 | Yes | 332.46 |
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