Analytics
Resolved Rafa Garcia on 26 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Rafa Garcia at 48.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 12 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2026 to 26 Apr 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 18 Apr 2026 and the lowest 50% on 12 Apr 2026. $1.18M traded over the market's life.
165 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 27, 4:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 12 Apr 2026 – 26 Apr 2026, chart shows 45%–65%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 26 Apr 2026 | 51.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jon-Anik-Fan | Alexander Hernandez | 13.5K |
| Obilic | Alexander Hernandez | 9.86K |
| ve3693 | Alexander Hernandez | 9.65K |
| leo0770 | Alexander Hernandez |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Alexander Hernandez" if Alexander Hernandez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafa Garcia at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafa Garcia" if Rafa Garcia is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ale-raf3-2026-04-25
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| 4.46K |
| Automatic-Estate | Alexander Hernandez | 4.32K |
| Swagsurfing | Alexander Hernandez | 2.99K |
| DEGENKAT | Alexander Hernandez | 1.99K |
| buklyas | Alexander Hernandez | 1.52K |
| chao9152 | Alexander Hernandez | 1.01K |
| siick | Alexander Hernandez | 999.99 |
