Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 5 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 5 Jul 2026 to 18 Jul 2026, the highest close was 66.5% on 13 Jul 2026 and the lowest 38.5% on 17 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 66.5% on 13 Jul 2026. $814.24 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 19, 10:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 5 Jul 2026 – 18 Jul 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 18 Jul 2026 | 40.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Carefree-Quarter | Yes | 446.78 |
| SteadyC | Yes | 113.64 |
| Royal Beacon 58E9 | Yes | 42.75 |
| RePLay | Yes | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alden Coria defeats Stewart Nicoll at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, scheduled for July 18, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 1, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ald-ste35-2026-07-18
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| askarta | Yes | 22.39 |
| Serious-Textbook | Yes | 6.82 |
| Our-Denominator | Yes | 2.13 |
| Rocks3 | No | 0.5 |
