Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 54% on 18 May 2023. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 18 May 2023 to 1 Jun 2023, the highest close was 65% on 23 May 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Jun 2023. Its largest one-day move was 53 points down, to 1% on 29 May 2023. $155.32K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 1, 10:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 18 May 2023 – 1 Jun 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 May 2023 | 54.0% |
| 1 Jun 2023 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tulaay | Yes | 4.04K |
| Indigo Voyager E113 | No | 449.22 |
| İbrahim | Yes | 173.33 |
| Austere-Friendship | Yes | 98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A 2023 election for the President of Turkey resulted in no candidate getting a majority, triggering a runoff between incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu scheduled to be held on Sunday, May 28, 2023. This market will resolve to "Yes" if either candidate in the 2023 Turkish presidential runoff wins by a margin greater than 5% (e.g. margin of 5.0001% resolves to "Yes"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by each candidate in the election. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates. For example, if Candidate A receives 53% of the votes, and Candidate B receives 47% of the votes, the difference will be found by subtracting 47 from 53, thus the margin of victory in this case would equal 6 (|Candidate A% - Candidate B%| = Margin of Victory). Determination of the margin of victory of this election will be based on official information from the Yüksek Seçim Kurulu/YSK/Supreme Election Council (e.g. https://www.ysk.gov.tr/tr/cumhurbaskani-secim-arsivi/2647). If this election does not take place by December 31, 2023, this market will resolve 50-50.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/turkish-presidential-margin-of-victory-5
| Long-Term-Stepsister | Yes | 89.17 |
| Oddball-Jade | Yes | 54.22 |
| pinkstenis | Yes | 15 |
| Definitive-Radar | No | 0.08 |
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