Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 11% on 12 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 52 daily closes on record from 12 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 11% on 12 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 25 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.1 points down, to 4% on 13 Nov 2025. $15.1K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 52 points, 12 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2025 | 11.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 196.2 |
| JoseStrickland4151 | Yes | 176 |
| EricMason8257 | Yes | 158 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 141.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular Turkish military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Turkish military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory or entering the airspace will not qualify. Turkish military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking Turkish service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/turkish-forces-in-gaza-in-2025
| TannerSchultz9540 | Yes | 119 |
| Anjun | Yes | 111 |
| MathewTaylor8874 | Yes | 107 |
| givol | Yes | 100 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 87 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 86 |
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