Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 27 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 27 Dec 2025 to 30 Jan 2026, the highest close was 49% on 28 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 30 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 6.5% on 2 Jan 2026. $5.43K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 31, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 27 Dec 2025 – 30 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 48.5% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 243.92 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 218.91 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 115.94 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tsla-above-in-january-2026
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 73.96 |
| Freelist | Yes | 50 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 49.98 |
| EDCsystems | Yes | 45 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 17.18 |
| t189 | Yes | 8.59 |
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