Analytics
Resolved Alaska on 1 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Alaska at 99.3%. The Florida side opened at 47% on 24 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2024 to 1 Dec 2024, the highest close was 88.5% on 20 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.7% on 1 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 83 points up, to 88.5% on 20 Nov 2024. $1.44M traded over the market's life.
228 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 2:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Florida price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 24 Oct 2024 – 1 Dec 2024
| Observed | Florida price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2024 | 47.0% |
| 1 Dec 2024 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DCCCALL | Florida | 2.62K |
| TotallyNotCasual | Florida | 673 |
| EmperorTrump | Florida | 375 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Florida” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve to "Alaska” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes received by each Donald Trump and the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in Florida and Alaska each for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If Donald Trump loses both states, this market will resolve based off the state in which he had a smaller margin of defeat between himself and the first place candidate. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once both relevant states have certified the vote. If a recount is initiated in either state before certification, this market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trumps-margin-of-victory-higher-in-florida-or-alaska
| Florida |
| 336.67 |
| jc-5504 | Alaska | 224.58 |
| TRUMP24 | Florida | 221.21 |
| DisplayFruit | Florida | 100 |
| GHOST1991 | Florida | 95.42 |
| Orcan9 | Florida | 83.33 |
| Mihakickbox | Alaska | 61.18 |
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