Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 2 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2025 to 4 May 2025, the highest close was 100% on 4 May 2025 and the lowest 1.8% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 98 points up, to 99.9% on 1 May 2025. $6.83M traded over the market's life.
100 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 2 Apr 2025 – 4 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2025 | 27.5% |
| 4 May 2025 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cobalt Ledger 1C7F | No | 255.95K |
| Solar Ledger E019 | No | 142K |
| KeepCalm77 | No | 70K |
| Cippalippa | No | 48.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine enact or sign any deal between March 31 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian minerals. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying mineral deals include but are not limited partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Ukrainian minerals. For the purpose of this market "enacted" means that the agreement has been officially signed or otherwise formally adopted by both parties within the market’s time frame. A qualifying agreement which is signed by both parties will qualify, regardless of whether it is later ratified by relevant bodies (U.S. Congress, Verkhovna Rada, etc.). Announcements of an agreement will not alone qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-x-ukraine-mineral-deal-signed-before-may
| Lunar Oracle 28B3 | No | 28K |
| Flavium02 | No | 25.1K |
| daveyftw | No | 22.92K |
| NancyFaeser | No | 21.69K |
| ketib2 | No | 15K |
| anthons | No | 10K |
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