Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 16.5%. Yes opened at 70.5% on 22 Dec 2023. Before it settled, the high was 90.5% on 25 Jan 2024 and the low 56.5% on 12 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 85% on 23 Dec 2023. $819.85K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 7, 8:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 22 Dec 2023 – 6 Mar 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Dec 2023 | 70.5% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | 83.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gorgonzola | No | 100 |
| Letite | Yes | 0.65 |
| Anon12321-837 | Yes | 0.02 |
| tonton | Yes | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump wins at least one Republican primary or caucus in every state for the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The winner of a primary/caucus is defined as the candidate who wins the greatest number of votes. Note this market only concerns the 50 US state Republican primaries and caucuses (i.e. not Guam, District of Columbia, Northern Mariana Islands, etc). If a state primary or caucus is cancelled, the state will not be considered for this market - namely if Trump wins all other states, this market will resolve to “Yes.” This market will not resolve to "Yes" until every state Republican primary and/or caucus for the 2024 US presidential cycle has concluded and Donald Trump has won at least one primary or caucus in every state. This market may resolve to "No" immediately once conclusive proof that Donald Trump has lost a state’s primary and caucus is available. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the state Republican parties, the national GOP, and the caucuses and primaries themselves, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-wins-every-state-in-rep-nomination
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