Trump wins 312-226 - swing state sweep

Resolved

Yes, settled Nov 10, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$559.5K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Nov 10, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 10 Nov 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.1%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 30 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2024 to 10 Nov 2024, the highest close was 99.7% on 8 Nov 2024 and the lowest 9.5% on 3 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 86 points up, to 98.6% on 7 Nov 2024. $559.48K traded over the market's life.

18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 11, 4:22 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 30 Oct 2024 – 10 Nov 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Oct 2024	28.5%
10 Nov 2024	99.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Leo444	No	555.56
Luxor	Yes	80
Velli	No	71.43
Rizza	No	30.45

10 of 18 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Note: This market is about Donald Trump winning with exactly 312 electoral votes, with this specific configuration: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump+312.png. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump secures exactly 312 electoral votes in the 2024 United States Presidential Election by winning the following states and districts: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Florida (30), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1), Michigan (15), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4 out of 5 electoral votes excluding Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), Pennsylvania (19), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wisconsin (10), Wyoming (3). If Donald Trump does not win exactly these states and districts, thereby securing exactly 312 electoral votes, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors will not be considered. The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (including AP, NBC, Fox) on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.