Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7% on 9 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 359 daily closes on record from 9 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 1 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 13.5% on 10 Jan 2025. $1.06M traded over the market's life.
163 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 359 points, 9 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2025 | 7.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RRSerch | Yes | 12.37K |
| magaapeboy | Yes | 11.31K |
| RightMan | Yes | 10.36K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means. An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-takes-panama-canal-in-2025
| aGuyCalledJimmy | Yes | 3.45K |
| heuer | Yes | 1.85K |
| carisepatumurah1994 | Yes | 1.25K |
| Deep.Blue | Yes | 1K |
| MansaMusaX | Yes | 1K |
| DickTurbin | Yes | 975.39 |
| sergvpp | Yes | 958.42 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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