Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 17 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2025 to 5 Oct 2025, the highest close was 97.3% on 20 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 48 points up, to 97.3% on 20 Sep 2025. $6.81M traded over the market's life.
175 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 6, 8:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 17 Sep 2025 – 5 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2025 | 46.5% |
| 5 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| This-Espadrille | Yes | 1.15M |
| Jessicap1115 | Yes | 815.97K |
| unomasguy | Yes | 139.71K |
| confusioncentral | Yes | 100K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US armed forces conduct a strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target in the North Western hemisphere between September 16 and September 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-strikes-another-drug-boat-by-sep-30
| Gui88 | Yes | 52.67K |
| elgamblero | Yes | 46.26K |
| 0x1000 | Yes | 38.69K |
| tejfa | Yes | 29.5K |
| Bruised-Subway | Yes | 20K |
| Unhealthy-Molar | Yes | 12.17K |
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