Analytics
Resolved Yes on 17 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 89%. Yes opened at 65% on 15 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2025 to 17 Oct 2025, the highest close was 89% on 17 Oct 2025 and the lowest 65% on 15 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 89% on 17 Oct 2025. $71.27K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 18, 4:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 15 Oct 2025 – 17 Oct 2025, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2025 | 65.0% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | 89.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| spearminter | No | 7.48K |
| OhhhMakeItRain | No | 1.71K |
| wisser | No | 1.05K |
| Dakainekai | No | 760.92 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US armed forces conduct a strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target in the North Western hemisphere between October 14, 2025, 3:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-strikes-another-drug-boat-by-oct-31
| LukeGamma | No | 646.83 |
| MonkeyDLuffyMoca | No | 643.58 |
| figaropantom | No | 541.64 |
| TelegramTeleblog | No | 490 |
| Elico | No | 457.89 |
| Tiny-Algebra | No | 333.33 |
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