Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday?

politicsResolved

No, settled Sep 20, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$151.3K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 20, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 20 Sep 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 11% on 12 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2024 to 20 Sep 2024, the highest close was 13% on 14 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 20 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8.8 points down, to 2.3% on 18 Sep 2024. $151.34K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 1:46 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 12 Sep 2024 – 20 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Sep 2024	11.0%
20 Sep 2024	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Compassionate-Factor	Yes	441.33
6546iik	Yes	0.57
madmax1	Yes	0.17
stray21	Yes	0.17

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 60.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on September 20, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for September 20 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for September 20 is available by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to September 20.