Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 20 Sep 2024. Before it settled, the high was 25.5% on 20 Sep 2024 and the low 1.1% on 27 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7.8 points down, to 1.7% on 26 Sep 2024. $207.1K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 28, 4:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 20 Sep 2024 – 27 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2024 | 25.5% |
| 27 Sep 2024 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ProteinProsecco | Yes | 20.42K |
| Wompum | Yes | 49.17 |
| wowaow | Yes | 12.99 |
| dolakov | Yes | 0.53 |
| saksa | No | 0.1 |
| keril | No | 0.07 |
| ded321 | No | 0.06 |
| andreys | No | 0.06 |
| toma-712 | No | 0.04 |
| koks | No | 0.04 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 50.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on September 27, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for September 27 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for September 27 is available by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to September 27.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-silver-bulletin-odds-50-next-friday
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