Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 2.3% on 1 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 158 daily closes on record from 1 Jun 2024 to 5 Nov 2024, the highest close was 9.3% on 17 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 16 Sep 2024. $3.46M traded over the market's life.
73 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 6, 7:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 158 points, 1 Jun 2024 – 5 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jun 2024 | 2.3% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 254.88K |
| Raskin | Yes | 55.8K |
| Aboutyou | Yes | 5K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to spend between 12 (inclusive) months and 23 months (inclusive) in the custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No". If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time
| ER03PT | Yes | 3.98K |
| Turnerer | Yes | 1.33K |
| Telson | Yes | 1.33K |
| bvdy | Yes | 1.19K |
| Early-Ham | Yes | 500 |
| ER02CB | Yes | 434.78 |
| Cas | Yes | 306.72 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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