Analytics
“Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 30?” is a economy prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 Oct 2026. $6.31K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 36 daily price points from Aug 27, 2026 UTC to Oct 1, 2026 UTC (Yes between 4.0% and 51.0%); 12 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 98.9% of the loaded shares; 65 recent public fills from 40 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, proclamation, or memorandum authorizing or ordering new sanctions on Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-issues-iran-sanctions-executive-order-by-aug-28
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 36 points · 27 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 47.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 21.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Afraid-Rim | Yes | 87.62 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 40.31 |
| aenews2 |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Yes |
| 40.27 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| TikiTikiTiki | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 8 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 5 |
| bertross | Yes | 5 |
| Trivial-Hole | Yes | 5 |
| man-enough | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
