Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 8 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 50% on 8 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 18.5% on 12 Oct 2025. $32.71K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 26, 8:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 8 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 1.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| choosinglosses | Yes | 3K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 2.98K |
| Bloodpoison | Yes | 1.43K |
| supremeleaderpepe | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-invokes-the-insurrection-act-in-2025
| jearle | Yes | 612.49 |
| Rndntz | Yes | 421.6 |
| VibeTrader | Yes | 304.56 |
| macdadyys | Yes | 259.54 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 138 |
| FrosenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 123.02 |
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