
Resolved Yes on 7 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 82.5% on 5 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 156 daily closes on record from 5 Jun 2024 to 7 Nov 2024, the highest close was 99.4% on 7 Nov 2024 and the lowest 44.5% on 1 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 44.5% on 1 Aug 2024. $888.5K traded over the market's life.
96 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 8, 8:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 156 points, 5 Jun 2024 – 7 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2024 | 82.5% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 99.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Blank-Subgroup | No | 5.33K |
| Matuszeg | No | 3.13K |
| H.I.M | No | 3.08K |
According to the CNN exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 12% of the Black vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's share of African American or Black voters is 13% or greater in 2024 US presidential election according to available exit polling information from CNN provided on their website as of November 6, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump drops out of the race at any point, or faces any extenuating circumstances that prevents him from continuing the race, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be exit polls from CNN. If CNN has not made exit poll information available online by this market's end time, this market will stay open until it has been released/published. If the exit poll information has not been published by November 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, exit polls from CBS will be used instead (data from the 2024 CBS exit poll will be compared to the 2020 CBS exit poll). This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered. Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-increase-share-of-black-voters
| Fezzik | No | 1.97K |
| displaynameguy | No | 1.61K |
| SleepyHobbit | No | 1.56K |
| MAXXBowers | No | 1K |
| coolguy69 | No | 876.59 |
| ASB777 | No | 857.14 |
| MorphicField | No | 644.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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