Trump flips Kamala on Silver Bulletin before the election?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Oct 17, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$184.1K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 17, 2024 UTC

Topic roomOil, gold and commodities

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 17 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 85%. Yes opened at 32% on 1 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2024 to 17 Oct 2024, the highest close was 85% on 17 Oct 2024 and the lowest 31.5% on 2 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 56% on 8 Oct 2024. $184.08K traded over the market's life.

4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 18, 6:16 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 1 Oct 2024 – 17 Oct 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Oct 2024	32.0%
17 Oct 2024	85.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Hateful-Container	Yes	1.75
Tatafe	No	0.07
Tareyun	No	0.05

4 of 4 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 30 and November 4, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the November 4 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Donald Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Kamala Harris..