Trump flips Kamala on Nate Silver's Bulletin?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Aug 29, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$277.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 29, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 29 Aug 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 41.5%. Yes opened at 19% on 21 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2024 to 29 Aug 2024, the highest close was 41.5% on 29 Aug 2024 and the lowest 5.5% on 27 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 41.5% on 29 Aug 2024. $277.87K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 30, 6:43 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 21 Aug 2024 – 29 Aug 2024

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Aug 2024	19.0%
29 Aug 2024	41.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Murky-Waterfall	No	257.08
ama	No	56.71
gfdfht	No	21.29
Faithful-Mineral	Yes	0.53

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between August 19 and August 31, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the August 31 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.