Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 27 Aug 2024. Before it settled, the high was 36% on 10 Sep 2024 and the low 0.2% on 2 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 18.5% on 11 Sep 2024. $348.68K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 9:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Aug 2024 – 2 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2024 | 16.5% |
| 2 Oct 2024 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PolyMarker | Yes | 1.35K |
| comechasse | Yes | 100 |
| johanngerhardt | Yes | 100 |
| josianevincent | Yes | 100 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between August 25, and September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines under "Win probability". The resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-flips-kamala-on-538-before-october
| noreenmccarthy | Yes | 100 |
| lagosdiego | Yes | 100 |
| robertocabrera5112 | Yes | 100 |
| isaacbeauchamp | Yes | 100 |
| ledouxnicole | Yes | 100 |
| detleffrei | Yes | 100 |
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