Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 12 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 12 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 38% on 18 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 38% on 18 Jun 2025. $183.97K traded over the market's life.
47 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2025 | 32.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Magenilan | Yes | 3.55K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 391 |
| andre20l | Yes | 195.93 |
| Pheonon | Yes | 192.04 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announce that the United States is ending its participation in the ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran as an active negotiating party by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal remarks, statements of intent, or reports of delays, pauses, or tactical shifts will not count unless clearly framed as a decision to withdraw from the negotiations. Statements that the U.S. will no longer attend future rounds, has walked away from talks, or is suspending engagement on the nuclear issue will qualify if presented as official policy. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible repoting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-exits-iran-nucelar-negotiations-before-july
| Omria | Yes | 163.71 |
| Marcus177 | Yes | 130 |
| Alucan | Yes | 130 |
| rohan9 | Yes | 117.65 |
| Dearest-Sonnet | Yes | 107.53 |
| TOOKiE916 | Yes | 99.99 |
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