Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 16% on 7 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 75 daily closes on record from 7 Nov 2024 to 20 Jan 2025, the highest close was 18% on 11 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 19 Jan 2025. $5.11M traded over the market's life.
341 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 21, 6:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 7 Nov 2024 – 20 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2024 | 16.0% |
| 20 Jan 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TrumpIsPeace | Yes | 492.48K |
| Compassionate-Smog | Yes | 44.55K |
| Syniak | Yes | 20.46K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe. This market will resolve based on the first announcement of such an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-ends-ukraine-war-before-inauguration
| Yes |
| 18.32K |
| ShrimpyMcLovin | Yes | 14.81K |
| MartianGangster | Yes | 13.8K |
| Kriptn33 | Yes | 12.14K |
| olp | Yes | 11.05K |
| AdrianRO | Yes | 10.95K |
| hghhh. | Yes | 10.5K |
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