Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99%. Yes opened at 37% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 30 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99% on 30 Jan 2026 and the lowest 28% on 18 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 55 points up, to 99% on 30 Jan 2026. $11.73K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 31, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 30 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 37.0% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | 99.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 632 |
| defidegen42069 | No | 400 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 350 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 344 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-declares-a-national-emergency-by
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 175 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 102 |
| JetskiJay | No | 60 |
| t189 | No | 50 |
| pv34 | No | 30 |
| paas2 | No | 30 |
