Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.4% on 28 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 67 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 1.4% on 28 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. $193.18K traded over the market's life.
99 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 28 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2025 | 1.4% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sabosscoin | Yes | 4.5K |
| Intrepid-Rider | Yes | 3.7K |
| Amber Quasar C768 | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Donald Trump is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. Unsubstantiated claims made by Trump will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from Donald Trump.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 900 |
| Speedy-Cloak | Yes | 627.16 |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| Fabio10 | Yes | 566.67 |
| bananagan | Yes | 460 |
| flipsol | Yes | 400 |
| siedem | Yes | 399.96 |
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