Analytics
Resolved Up on 8 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Up at 78.5%. The Up side opened at 50% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2026 to 8 Aug 2026, the highest close was 78.5% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 26.5% on 4 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 64.5% on 7 Aug 2026. $810.02 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 8 Aug 2026
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 8 Aug 2026 | 78.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| qqqmmmccc | Down | 203.99 |
| System-Error404 | Down | 172.09 |
| TENETENET | Down | 100 |
| hesure | Down | 16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 7, 2026, than on July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 31, 2026, than on August 7, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-20260730202018839
| triklozoid | Down | 15 |
| bjprolo | Down | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Down | 5 |
| Noxious-Auditorium | Down | 5 |
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