Analytics
Resolved No on 3 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 71% on 2 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 71% on 2 Apr 2025 and the low 0.1% on 2 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 27.5% on 24 Apr 2025. $206.59K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 4, 12:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 2 Apr 2025 – 3 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2025 | 71.0% |
| 3 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GayPride | Yes | 726.46 |
| natural89 | Yes | 273.98 |
| Boydosan | Yes | 100 |
| 4653DTFGCHJ | Yes | 37.7 |
| HJHGGDHTGH | Yes | 35 |
| xuylittle | No | 22.73 |
| vector19 | Yes | 16 |
| MGMHpbhgjdl | Yes | 15.67 |
| enuske | Yes | 13.96 |
| AGR747 | Yes | 8.11 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is above 45% on May 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than 45% for a “Yes” resolution; an approval of 45% rating will not qualify. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for May 1 is not published by May 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon), the next previous datapoint will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-45-on-may-1
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