Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.6%. Yes opened at 57% on 28 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 28 May 2025 to 2 Jul 2025, the highest close was 98.6% on 2 Jul 2025 and the lowest 29.5% on 18 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 89% on 29 Jun 2025. $66.2K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 4, 12:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 28 May 2025 – 2 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 May 2025 | 57.0% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 98.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 396.99 |
| mongeteur16 | No | 200 |
| Sparkling-Evil | No | 150.86 |
| BeefDerky | No | 131.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is above 45% on July 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than 45% for a “Yes” resolution; an approval of 45% rating will not qualify. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for July 1 is not published by July 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon), the next previous datapoint will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-45-on-july-1
| surelis | No | 43.35 |
| reddevil07 | No | 26 |
| Bayerstark04 | No | 22.22 |
| BirdLiker | No | 18.97 |
| Vital-Corsage | No | 16 |
| quidam | No | 2.86 |
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