Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 72.5%. Yes opened at 86% on 8 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2025 to 10 Nov 2025, the highest close was 86% on 8 Nov 2025 and the lowest 72.5% on 10 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 78.5% on 9 Nov 2025. $48.71K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 11, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 8 Nov 2025 – 10 Nov 2025, chart shows 65%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2025 | 86.0% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | 72.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SpringAndGrass1646 | No | 10K |
| tusiwa | No | 1K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 997 |
| tomsabo | No | 610.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between November 7, 11:30 AM ET, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-519
| JoaoZedong | No | 323.85 |
| saya.hl | No | 280 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 260 |
| hero4443 | No | 211.45 |
| Grouchy-Costume | No | 180.93 |
| mycl | No | 159.65 |
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