Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 2 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 2 Dec 2025 to 5 Dec 2025, the highest close was 99.5% on 5 Dec 2025 and the lowest 13.5% on 4 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 86 points up, to 99.5% on 5 Dec 2025. $47.28K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 6, 8:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 2 Dec 2025 – 5 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Dec 2025 | 19.5% |
| 5 Dec 2025 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 1.2K |
| Noway5 | No | 1K |
| casper1009 | No | 471.36 |
| carl2tmm | No | 443.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between December 1, 11:00 AM ET, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-287
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 240 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 237 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 233 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 158 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 123 |
| AllGasNoBreaks | No | 117.79 |
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