Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 69.5%. Yes opened at 49% on 29 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 49% on 29 Jan 2026 and the low 30.5% on 4 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 31.5% on 30 Jan 2026. $156.72K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 29 Jan 2026 – 4 Feb 2026 · axis zoomed to 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 49.0% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | 30.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vapid-Comic | Yes | 5.54K |
| Uncommon-Trap | Yes | 1K |
| cccccccccc3 | Yes | 894.01 |
| Original-Speed | Yes | 442.48 |
| le0nn | Yes | 386 |
| arya7777 | Yes | 300.01 |
| findcs | Yes | 250.35 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 246 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 227 |
| Seshinre | Yes | 200.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Tria (https://x.com/useTria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tria-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
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