Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 4.1% on 27 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 5.8% on 21 Jul 2026 and the low 0.4% on 17 Sep 2026. $23.85K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 27 May 2026 – 17 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | 4.1% |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cripes3 | Yes | 2K |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 534 |
| coti25 | Yes | 300 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Tread (https://x.com/tread_fi) doesn't launch a token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tread-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| Yes |
| 177.42 |
| M19284 | Yes | 157.69 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 99.99 |
| 58dgfd | Yes | 37.49 |
| nan-han | No | 29.99 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
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