Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 58% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 158 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 24 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 36.5% on 9 Feb 2026. $234.09K traded over the market's life.
73 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 6:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 158 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 58.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jgood777 | Yes | 1.94K |
| Zarshka | Yes | 1.05K |
| MMstrategy | Yes | 1.01K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966
| Stonktrader | Yes | 824.05 |
| Delectable-Acorn | Yes | 466.72 |
| sapiensp | Yes | 400 |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 267.55 |
| Grokius | Yes | 260.03 |
| 5-min | Yes | 200 |
| OxSamXBT | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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