Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved Yes on 27 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 25 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 27 Jul 2025 and the low 53.5% on 26 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 100% on 27 Jul 2025. $29.33K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 29, 2:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 25 Jul 2025 – 27 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | 55.5% |
| 27 Jul 2025 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Saxonater | No | 1.05K |
| Dankwizart420 | No | 223.59 |
| qwertzu | No | 200 |
| stellastella | No | 100.76 |
| irio27 | No | 100 |
| Chainedkong | No | 80 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 74 |
| IvanL | No | 60 |
| OgFumbler | No | 51.72 |
| Andrepdl | No | 46.71 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate between July 24, 1:00 PM ET and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-july-31
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