Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 40.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 3% on 17 Jan 2026. $44.41K traded over the market's life.
40 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 16, 2:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 40.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Clever-Reveal | Yes | 1.24K |
| New-Gear | Yes | 804.92 |
| BlackSheepStudio | Yes | 720 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 677 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 645 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 396 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 383 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 298 |
| atthkorn | Yes | 213.19 |
| cdxdiaz | Yes | 205.18 |
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