Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 29 points from 38.5% when the market opened on 16 Sep 2026.
Across the 42 daily closes on record from 16 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 20 Sep 2026 and the lowest 9% on 18 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 35.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 10% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Tesla Roadster delivered by...?”.
$5.49K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $5.75K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 140 trades, $759.68 bought Yes and $1.36K bought No.
The largest Yes position is doil with 507 shares; the largest No position is Lk7600 with 902. Ten wallets hold 91.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 16 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 38.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lk7600 | No | 901.74 |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 739.5 |
| doil |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tesla has delivered at least one Roadster to a qualifying customer by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Roadster" refers to the next-generation Tesla Roadster unveiled on November 16, 2017, in any trim or edition, including the Founders Series, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the Roadster. The original Tesla Roadster produced from 2008 to 2012 will not qualify. A delivery means the physical handover of a production vehicle to a qualifying customer, in any region. A qualifying customer must be a member of the general public, including a reservation holder, who has purchased the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Deliveries to Tesla or SpaceX employees, executives, directors, or their family members, to subsidiaries or internal entities, or for promotional, testing, demonstration, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. A single handover to a recipient selected by Tesla outside its public order or reservation process (for example a celebrity delivery ahead of deliveries to reservation holders) will not qualify. Unveilings, demonstrations, test rides, prototype displays, announced delivery dates, and production announcements will not qualify on their own; a completed delivery meeting the above criteria must occur within this market's timeframe. Confirmation of the delivery must occur within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tesla-roadster-delivered-byptptpt
| Yes |
| 507.17 |
| Silver Atlas DDDA | Yes | 421 |
| tescat | Yes | 170.67 |
| ka7ak | Yes | 108.34 |
| flashboys2 | Yes | 100.86 |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 96.21 |
| youtube-trader | No | 87.08 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 79.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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