Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 13% on 18 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 18 Jul 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 13% on 18 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 2.5% on 19 Jul 2025. $48.36K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 18 Jul 2025 – 1 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | 13.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ragebait4713 | Yes | 1.37K |
| connordcrypto | Yes | 416.67 |
| Ronenio | Yes | 333.33 |
| Kostel | Yes | 287.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 17, 3:30 PM ET and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 17, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/syria-strikes-israel-by-july-31
| Parampel | Yes | 220 |
| Well-Informed-Cord | Yes | 201.42 |
| udeo | Yes | 200 |
| Michael1311 | Yes | 166.67 |
| Lordsinatra | Yes | 143 |
| boro09 | Yes | 142.86 |
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