Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 24% on 25 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 162 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 24% on 25 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Jan 2026. $90.15K traded over the market's life.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 162 points, 25 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | 24.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dashagroyper | Yes | 580.19 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 437.37 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 253.99 |
This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 24, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/syria-strikes-israel-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 235 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 211.99 |
| thomas111 | Yes | 181 |
| Topg2837 | Yes | 177.72 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 173 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 145 |
| Automatic-Initialize | Yes | 140 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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