Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 2.9% on 10 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2025 to 13 Jan 2025, the highest close was 2.9% on 10 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 13 Jan 2025. $39.2K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 14, 8:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 10 Jan 2025 – 13 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2025 | 2.9% |
| 13 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bbppo | Yes | 194.6 |
| savanahbinf | No | 0.06 |
| vvahitov | No | 0.03 |
| Big.Chungus | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Sunset fire in California burns 1,000 or more acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sunset-wildfire-burns-1k-or-more-acres-by-sunday
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