Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 7.5%. Yes opened at 25% on 29 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2025 to 22 Oct 2025, the highest close was 25% on 29 Sep 2025 and the lowest 7.5% on 15 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 19.5% on 7 Oct 2025. $48.98K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 12:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 29 Sep 2025 – 22 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2025 | 25.0% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | 7.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| F0000 | No | 1.03K |
| ColoradoWeed | No | 332.74 |
| aaaaaffff | No | 307.26 |
| Salamalejkum | No | 192.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures the listed intersections in Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by September 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersections will be considered captured if any part of the intersections is shaded blue, indicating a claimed Ukrainian counteroffensive/reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded blue by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Ukraine comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Ukraine captures the intersections, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Vilne Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vilne+intersection.png Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+intersection.png Location Zoomed: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne+zoom.jpeg Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne.jpeg Vilne Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mQJabFjS1M5cWNyt5 Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FeV7XeKUnqdXMGfx7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
| Ruvla | No | 180.56 |
| Reemig | No | 71.08 |
| Elliottt | No | 62.22 |
| Dzikens | No | 48.84 |
| OlaOla | No | 38.1 |
| EmotionMoney | No | 29.72 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/successful-ukrainian-counterattack-in-donbass-by-september-15
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