Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 3 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 18.5% on 3 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 7.5% on 4 Oct 2024. $66K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 6:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 3 Oct 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2024 | 18.5% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ilovepizza | Yes | 809.02 |
| Todd10k | Yes | 256.41 |
| tp001 | Yes | 38.46 |
| exhuman666 | Yes | 29.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic military strike is carried out on the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, between October 2, 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open open spaces on around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/strike-on-dimonah-nuclear-base-in-october
| Strommex | No | 1.08 |
| theodark | Yes | 0.78 |
| Wet-Morale | No | 0.73 |
| jauluconti1979 | No | 0.42 |
| culniracha1970 | No | 0.41 |
| redfmorgrenme1985 | No | 0.33 |
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