Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 63%. Yes opened at 26% on 28 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 4 Sep 2026, the highest close was 38% on 3 Sep 2026 and the lowest 25.5% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 37.5% on 1 Sep 2026. $47.95 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 4, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026, chart shows 20%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 26.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 37.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 9.99 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 7.99 |
| Weepy-Item | Yes | 5 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/states-in-d4-drought-2026-09-01
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