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“Will Arizona have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?” is a weather prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 29, 2026”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 1, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 25, 11:08 AM UTC, Yes trades at 5.3¢, a 5.3% implied chance, $370.2 traded in the last 24 hours, $32.72 resting in the order book, a 6.4% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 2 daily price points from Sep 25, 2026 UTC to Sep 25, 2026 UTC (Yes between 4.5% and 5.3%); 4 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 19 recent public fills from 7 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 2 points · 25 Sep 2026 – 25 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 4.5% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 5.3% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| title1 | No | 25 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 20 |
| Plain-Takeover | Yes |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Arizona carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 29, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arizona market and make no claim about Arizona's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-d4-drought-2026-09-29
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 6 |
| AiBird | No | 1 |