Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 61%. Yes opened at 94.5% on 4 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 10 Sep 2026, the highest close was 94.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 59.5% on 8 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 60.5% on 6 Sep 2026. $73 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 11, 12:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 10 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 94.5% |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 61.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| bjprolo | No | 8 |
| triklozoid | No | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nebraska has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Nebraska carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 8, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Nebraska market and make no claim about Nebraska's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-d4-drought-2026-09-08
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